Card Grading Expected Value Calculator (Grade It or Sell Raw?)

How it works

graded EV = Σ P(grade) × price(grade) · net graded = EV × (1 − selling fees) − grading fee − shipping · net raw = raw price × (1 − selling fees) · grade if net graded > net raw · break-even P(10) = smallest chance of a 10 at which net graded ≥ net raw

Grading converts one uncertain card into a lottery over grades whose prizes are the market prices of each slab, so whether to submit is an expected-value question: the odds of each grade — which honest inspection of centring, corners and surface can estimate — times each price, less the fee, the shipping and the cut the marketplace takes on the eventual sale, against what the raw card fetches today. The gap between a 9 and a 10 is where most of the value lives, which is why the break-even chance of a gem grade is the key number, why low-value cards rarely justify a fee, and why the downside of a disappointing grade on a card that was worth more raw is real.

Worked example

A card selling for $60 raw ($52 after 13% fees) with a 35% chance of a 10 at $260, 45% of a 9 at $90 and 20% of an 8 at $50 has a graded EV of $141.50 — about $94 net after the $25 fee, $4 shipping and selling costs — so grading is worth about $42 a card on average, though the 20% low-grade outcome nets only $15. It pays once the chance of a 10 is above roughly 9% at these prices; ten such cards return about $420 more than selling raw for $290 of fees up front.

Frequently asked questions