Expected Goals (xG) Calculator
Estimate expected goals from a number of shots and their average chance quality, plus the probability of scoring at least one goal.
How it works
xG = shots × average xG per shot · P(at least one goal) = 1 − (1 − xG per shot)^shots
Expected goals sums the scoring probability of each chance, so a team that takes many low-quality shots can post the same xG as one that takes a few great ones. This simplified version applies one average shot quality across all shots; a full model rates every shot individually by angle, distance and situation. The at-least-one-goal figure assumes shots are independent, which is a reasonable first approximation.
Worked example
12 shots at an average quality of 0.11 gives xG = 12 × 0.11 = 1.32 expected goals. The chance of scoring at least once is 1 − (1 − 0.11)^12 = 1 − 0.89^12 = 1 − 0.247 = 75.3%.
Sources: Expected goals — Wikipedia
Frequently asked questions
What is a typical xG per shot?
Across open play it averages roughly 0.10, but it ranges from about 0.02 for a long-range effort to 0.76 for a penalty. Big chances near goal carry much higher values.
Why can xG be more than the goals actually scored?
xG is a long-run average; any single match has variance. A team can create 2.0 xG and score zero, or convert a 0.3 xG chance. Over many games the totals tend to converge.
Is this a full xG model?
No. Professional models assign a separate probability to every shot using dozens of features. This calculator uses one average shot quality, which is ideal for quick estimates and teaching the concept.
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This calculator is for educational purposes. Double-check important results before acting on them.