Glidepath Withdrawal Survival Calculator
Test whether a portfolio that shifts from stocks to bonds over retirement can fund your inflation-adjusted spending for life.
How it works
Each year: balance = (balance − inflation-adjusted spend) × (1 + glidepath return) · stock% declines linearly
A glidepath gradually trades stocks for bonds as retirement progresses, lowering volatility late in life when there is less time to recover from a crash. This model assumes fixed 7% stock and 3% bond returns and shifts the mix linearly each year, subtracting an inflation-growing withdrawal before applying that year's blended return. It shows whether the plan survives on average returns; it does not capture the year-to-year sequence risk that can sink a plan even when the average is fine.
Worked example
From $1,000,000 drawing $40,000 (a 4% start) growing 3% a year, on a 60%→30% stock glidepath over 30 years: the portfolio comfortably survives and leaves a balance, because average returns outpace the rising withdrawals.
Frequently asked questions
What is a glidepath?
A rule that steadily reduces your stock allocation as you age, moving toward bonds. Target-date funds do this automatically; here you set the starting and ending stock percentages.
Does this account for market crashes?
No. It uses steady average returns, so it answers "does the math work on average." A bad run of early returns — sequence risk — can still deplete a portfolio that passes this test, so keep a cash buffer.
Is a declining stock allocation always best?
Not always. Some research favors a rising equity glidepath in retirement to combat sequence risk. This tool lets you set any start and end mix to compare.
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Educational estimate using simplified assumptions — real returns, taxes and fees vary. Not financial advice.