Course Launch Revenue Projection Calculator
Project the revenue of an online course launch from your audience size, conversion rate and price — net of refunds and platform fees.
How it works
Buyers = audience × conversion% · Gross = buyers × price · Net = gross × (1 − refund%) × (1 − fee%)
A launch projection starts with reach and whittles it down. Only a small slice of the audience converts — 1–3% is typical for a cold-ish list — and the buyers times the price give gross revenue. From there, refunds claw back a share (money-back guarantees are standard for courses), and the platform plus payment processor take a cut of what is left. The net-revenue-per-person figure is the most useful planning number: it tells you what each additional subscriber or follower is worth at launch, and therefore what growing the list is worth.
Worked example
A 5,000-person audience converting at 2% yields 100 buyers at $297 — $29,700 gross. After a 6% refund rate (−$1,782) and 8% platform/processing fees on the remainder (−$2,233), net revenue is about $25,685, or roughly $5.14 of net revenue for every person reached.
Frequently asked questions
What conversion rate should I expect for a course launch?
For an engaged email list, 1–3% of the total list buying during a launch is a common range; a warm, nurtured segment or a webinar audience can convert much higher. Cold traffic converts far lower. Use your own past launches if you have them — audience quality matters more than size.
Why account for refunds separately from fees?
They shrink revenue in different ways. Refunds remove whole sales (and their fees are often not fully recovered), while platform and processing fees take a percentage of the sales that stick. Modeling them in order — refunds first, then fees on the remainder — gives a more honest net figure.
Is net revenue the same as profit?
No. Net revenue here is after refunds and platform/processing fees, but before your own costs — course production, ad spend to fill the audience, affiliate commissions and your time. Subtract those to reach true profit; this tool sizes the top-line opportunity.
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Educational estimate, not financial advice.