Membership Site Churn Revenue Calculator
See how monthly churn and new signups shape your membership site’s recurring revenue, including the steady-state member count churn allows.
How it works
Each month: members = members − members × churn% + new members · Steady state = new members ÷ churn% · Avg lifetime (months) = 1 ÷ churn%
A membership business is a leaky bucket: churn drains a percentage of members every month while signups pour new ones in. Because churn is a percentage, the losses grow as the base grows, so membership does not rise forever — it converges on a steady state where new signups exactly offset the churned, equal to new members divided by the churn rate. The reciprocal of churn gives the average member’s lifetime in months, and multiplying by the fee reveals why even a couple of points of churn quietly caps your recurring revenue.
Worked example
With 800 members, 5% monthly churn and 60 new members a month, you lose about 40 and gain 60 early on, so membership drifts upward toward a steady state of 60 ÷ 0.05 = 1,200 members. Average member lifetime is 1 ÷ 0.05 = 20 months. At a $29 fee, that steady state is about $34,800 in MRR.
Frequently asked questions
What is “steady-state” membership?
It is the level at which your monthly signups exactly replace the members you lose to churn, so the total stops changing. It equals new members ÷ churn rate. Below it membership grows, above it churn outpaces signups and it falls — either way it converges on that number if the inputs hold.
How does churn cap my revenue?
Because churn removes a percentage of an ever-larger base, adding members faster only raises the ceiling, not removes it. Cutting churn is uniquely powerful: halving churn doubles both the steady-state member count and the average member lifetime, lifting recurring revenue far more than the same effort spent on acquisition.
How is average member lifetime calculated?
It is the reciprocal of the monthly churn rate: 1 ÷ churn. At 5% monthly churn the average member stays 1 ÷ 0.05 = 20 months. Multiply that by the monthly fee to estimate lifetime revenue per member.
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Educational estimate, not financial advice.