Multiple Choice Guessing Expected Score Calculator
Should you guess? Expected marks from guessing on multiple-choice questions with negative marking, after eliminating options — and the break-even point.
How it works
E[guess] = p × (+marks) − (1 − p) × (−marks), p = 1 ÷ options remaining
Negative marking is meant to make blind guessing roughly break-even. With four options and +1/−⅓ it is exactly zero; with the +4/−1 scheme used by NEET and JEE a blind guess still averages 4 × ¼ − 1 × ¾ = +0.25, slightly positive. Eliminate even one option and the expected value turns clearly positive. Over many questions the average dominates the luck.
Worked example
Four options, one eliminated, +4/−1: p = 1/3 → 4/3 − 2/3 = +0.67 per guess; +13.3 over 20 questions.
Frequently asked questions
Does this apply to NEET and JEE?
Yes — both use +4/−1. Blind guessing is slightly positive on average; after eliminating one option it is clearly worth it.
What about the variance?
Guessing adds risk. The ± figure shows the typical swing; if a cut-off is close, weigh that against the expected gain.
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This calculator is for educational purposes. Double-check important results before acting on them.