Sprint Velocity Calculator (Agile Release Forecast)
Average your team’s sprint velocity from recent story points and forecast how many sprints and weeks the remaining backlog will take — pessimistic, average and optimistic.
How it works
Velocity = average story points completed per sprint · Sprints to finish = ⌈Backlog ÷ Velocity⌉ · Weeks = Sprints × Sprint length · Range: mean of the 3 lowest and 3 highest sprints
Velocity is the amount of work, in story points, a Scrum team actually finishes per sprint. Averaging recent sprints and dividing the remaining backlog by it gives a release forecast; Mike Cohn recommends bracketing it with the mean of the worst three and best three sprints rather than quoting a single date. Velocity is a planning tool for one team — comparing teams’ points or using velocity as a performance target distorts the estimates.
Worked example
A team completed 21, 25, 18, 24 and 27 points in its last five two-week sprints, an average velocity of 23.0. A 150-point backlog needs 150 ÷ 23 = 6.5, rounded up to 7 sprints or 14 weeks. The mean of the three worst sprints (21.0) gives 8 sprints (16 weeks); the mean of the three best (25.3) gives 6 sprints (12 weeks).
Sources: Mountain Goat Software (Mike Cohn) — Velocity and release planning · Scrum.org — What is velocity?
Frequently asked questions
How is sprint velocity calculated?
Add the story points of the stories that met the definition of done in each sprint and average them over the last few sprints. Partially finished stories count zero until they are done.
How many sprints should I average?
Three to eight recent sprints with a stable team. Fewer is noisy; older sprints may reflect a different team or codebase. Drop sprints with unusual holidays or team changes, or adjust for them.
How do I forecast a release date from velocity?
Divide the remaining backlog by velocity and round up to whole sprints, then multiply by sprint length. Give a range — pessimistic to optimistic — because scope and velocity both change.
Can I compare velocity between teams?
No. Story points are relative to each team’s own estimating baseline, so 30 points for one team is not more work than 20 for another. Use velocity only for that team’s planning.
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This calculator is for educational purposes. Double-check important results before acting on them.