Break Point Conversion Calculator: Tennis Break Points Won, Saved and Under Pressure
Work out break-point conversion in tennis from break points won and chances, with chances per break, a 95% range for small samples, a tour-average comparison, breaks per return game, break points saved, an ATP-style Under Pressure rating and how many conversions in a row reach a target rate.
How it works
Conversion % = break points won ÷ break-point opportunities × 100 · Chances per break = opportunities ÷ breaks · 95% range: Wilson score interval · Under Pressure (ATP-style) = BP converted % + BP saved % + tie-breaks won % + deciding sets won % · Conversions in a row to reach target t: n = ⌈(t × chances − converted) ÷ (1 − t)⌉
Break-point conversion is the share of break-point chances a returner turns into a break of serve. A break point is any point the receiver can win to take the game: 30–40, 15–40, 0–40 or advantage out, so a single game can give several chances but at most one break. Because holding serve is the norm, even 40% is solid: across the ATP Tour roughly four in ten break points are converted. The calculator also gives chances per break, a Wilson 95% range that shows how uncertain a small sample is (5 of 12 is consistent with anything from about 19% to 68%), the breaks you would expect at a tour-average rate, and how many conversions in a row would lift you to a target. Under More options you can add return games for breaks per return game, break points faced and saved on your own serve, and tie-break and deciding-set records for an Under Pressure rating built the way the ATP leaderboard presents it: the sum of the four percentages.
Worked example
A player earns 12 break-point chances and converts 5. Conversion = 5 ÷ 12 × 100 = 41.67%, or 12 ÷ 5 = 2.4 chances per break, with 7 missed. At the 40% tour average 12 chances would produce 4.8 breaks, so 5 is about average. The 95% range is 19%–68%, so one match says little. To reach 50% the player would need to convert the next 2 break points in a row (7 of 14).
Sources: Break (tennis) — break point, double and triple break point definitions, Wikipedia · ATP Tour — stats leaderboards (Return and Under Pressure: % break points converted, saved, tie-breaks, deciding sets)
Frequently asked questions
What is a good break-point conversion rate?
About 40% is average on the ATP Tour, and the best returners over a season sit in the mid-40s. Above 50% over a full season is rare. Over one match, anything from 0 to 100% happens, so judge a player on many matches.
What counts as a break-point opportunity?
Every point played when the returner is one point from winning the game: 30–40, 15–40, 0–40 and advantage out. 0–40 is a triple break point: if the returner loses the first, the next point is another chance.
Is it better to create more chances or convert more?
Both matter. A returner who creates 15 chances and converts a third still gets 5 breaks, while one who creates 5 and converts half gets 2.5. Breaks per return game combines the two and is the best single return number.
What is the ATP Under Pressure rating?
An ATP leaderboard that adds four percentages: break points converted, break points saved, tie-breaks won and deciding sets won. Enter break points faced and saved, tie-breaks and deciding sets under More options to see yours.
Why is the 95% range so wide?
A dozen chances is a small sample. The Wilson interval shows the conversion rates that are consistent with your result; it narrows roughly with the square root of the number of chances, so 100 chances gives a range about a third as wide.
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This calculator is for educational purposes. Double-check important results before acting on them.